CFC performance measures are calculated by comparing the average forecast error of the CFC forecast compared to the average forecast error of a linear forecast model based on the 24 months prior to the CFC forecast.
In the performance measure tables, the average error of the linear model is the "target," the average error of the CFC forecast is the "actual," and the difference between the two is the "variance." A negative "variance" means that the CFC forecast had a lower average error than the linear model target.
The target models do not include adjustment for the expected impact of budget/policy changes that may impact a caseload; these expected impacts are incorporated as "step adjustments" in the CFC forecasts. To the extent that step adjustments prove accurate, they improve the accuracy of the CFC forecast; to the extent they are inaccurate they reduce the accuracy of the CFC forecast. The step adjustments are typically based on agency fiscal notes and legislative estimates of expected impact.
CFC performance measures are calculated assessing the accuracy of the November CFC forecast of the fiscal year ending in the following June. For example, the 6thQtr 2009-11 performance assessment looks at the accuracy of the November 2009 CFC forecast of FY2010.
[See the current Performance Measures]